Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Rodriguez
Dwight Grant
87%
13%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
21-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
12-6
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rodriguez: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Grant: 30 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Rodriguez
Dwight Grant
40
Sig strikes landed
49
99
Sig strikes attempted
144
66
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
1.60
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
20s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
69%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Daniel Rodriguez
"D-Rod"
21-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
Blue corner
W2
Dwight Grant
"The Body Snatcher"
12-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—