Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mariya Agapova
Shana Dobson
82%
18%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
69"
23
Age
Δ 8y
31
11-5
Career record
Δ 29 pp
4-6
W1
Current streak
L3
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Agapova: 22 sig / 2 TD ·
Dobson: 24 sig / 2 TD
Mariya Agapova
Shana Dobson
44
Sig strikes landed
22
90
Sig strikes attempted
70
66
Total strikes landed
37
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.00
65s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mariya Agapova
"Money Mashka"
11-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
Blue corner
L3
Shana Dobson
"Danger"
4-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—