Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
Shavkat Rakhmonov
26%
74%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
77"
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
W2
Current streak
—
18
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Oliveira: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Rakhmonov: 13 sig / 0 TD
Alex Oliveira
Shavkat Rakhmonov
31
Sig strikes landed
42
65
Sig strikes attempted
77
47
Total strikes landed
75
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
151s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
23-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
18 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
Blue corner
Shavkat Rakhmonov
"Nomad"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26