Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nathaniel Wood
Casey Kenney
74%
26%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
24-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
17-4-1
W1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wood: 136 sig / 0 TD ·
Kenney: 123 sig / 2 TD
Nathaniel Wood
Casey Kenney
61
Sig strikes landed
56
145
Sig strikes attempted
130
82
Total strikes landed
77
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
127s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nathaniel Wood
"The Last Kingsman"
24-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
Blue corner
W2
Casey Kenney
17-4-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—