Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Tai Tuivasa
82%
18%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 10"
75"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
33-14
Career record
Δ 13 pp
15-11
L1
Current streak
L3
19
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Struve: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Tuivasa: 27 sig / 0 TD
Stefan Struve
Tai Tuivasa
32
Sig strikes landed
37
60
Sig strikes attempted
65
41
Total strikes landed
53
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
59s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
33-14
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
19 fights · 10-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
Blue corner
L3
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
15-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—