Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Lauren Murphy
Liliya Shakirova
53%
47%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
37
Age
Δ 8y
29
W3
Current streak
—
9
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Murphy: 22 sig / 1 TD ·
Shakirova: 23 sig / 0 TD
Lauren Murphy
Liliya Shakirova
54
Sig strikes landed
44
132
Sig strikes attempted
110
84
Total strikes landed
66
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.3
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
238s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
17-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
Blue corner
Liliya Shakirova
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29