Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Magomed Ankalaev
Ion Cutelaba
79%
21%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
28
Age
Δ 2y
27
22-2-1
Career record
Δ 27 pp
20-12-1
W4
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ankalaev: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Cutelaba: 11 sig / 0 TD
Magomed Ankalaev
Ion Cutelaba
38
Sig strikes landed
29
85
Sig strikes attempted
67
55
Total strikes landed
39
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.5
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
188s
Control time
24s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Magomed Ankalaev
22-2-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
Blue corner
L1
Ion Cutelaba
"The Hulk"
20-12-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—