Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jacob Malkoun
Phil Hawes
69%
31%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Malkoun: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Hawes: 7 sig / 0 TD
Jacob Malkoun
Phil Hawes
34
Sig strikes landed
36
70
Sig strikes attempted
75
51
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
131s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jacob Malkoun
"Mamba"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Phil Hawes
"No Hype"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32