Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Gavin Tucker
Justin Jaynes
54%
46%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
14-3
Career record
Δ 14 pp
17-8
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Tucker: 87 sig / 1 TD ·
Jaynes: 41 sig / 0 TD
Gavin Tucker
Justin Jaynes
21
Sig strikes landed
34
63
Sig strikes attempted
78
31
Total strikes landed
33
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
110s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gavin Tucker
"Guv'nor"
14-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
Blue corner
W1
Justin Jaynes
"The Guitar Hero"
17-8
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—