Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Means
Laureano Staropoli
74%
26%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
36
Age
Δ 9y
27
33-18-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
9-6
L1
Current streak
L1
21
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Means: 85 sig / 2 TD ·
Staropoli: 71 sig / 0 TD
Tim Means
Laureano Staropoli
76
Sig strikes landed
59
158
Sig strikes attempted
159
83
Total strikes landed
72
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
89s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
21 fights · 11-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
Blue corner
L1
Laureano Staropoli
"Pepi"
9-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—