Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Beneil Dariush
Scott Holtzman
78%
22%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
31
Age
Δ 6y
37
24-8-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
15-6
W4
Current streak
W2
17
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dariush: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Holtzman: 9 sig / 0 TD
Beneil Dariush
Scott Holtzman
39
Sig strikes landed
38
84
Sig strikes attempted
81
59
Total strikes landed
65
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.9
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
117s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Beneil Dariush
24-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
17 fights · 12-4
Last 5
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
Blue corner
W2
Scott Holtzman
"Hot Sauce"
15-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—