Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Maki Pitolo
Darren Stewart
61%
39%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
14-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
13-8
W1
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pitolo: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
Stewart: 13 sig / 0 TD
Maki Pitolo
Darren Stewart
35
Sig strikes landed
37
90
Sig strikes attempted
87
46
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Maki Pitolo
"Coconut Bombz"
14-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
W2
Darren Stewart
"The Dentist"
13-8
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—