Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Omari Akhmedov
Chris Weidman
76%
24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
78"
33
Age
Δ 3y
36
22-6-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
16-9
W3
Current streak
L2
12
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Akhmedov: 33 sig / 4 TD ·
Weidman: 29 sig / 5 TD
Omari Akhmedov
Chris Weidman
47
Sig strikes landed
35
112
Sig strikes attempted
80
66
Total strikes landed
45
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.0
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
141s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
22-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
D
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
16-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—