Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Aleksei Oleinik
13%
87%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
36
Age
Δ 8y
43
30-13
Career record
Δ 7 pp
61-17-1
W2
Current streak
W2
19
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lewis: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Oleinik: 2 sig / 1 TD
Derrick Lewis
Aleksei Oleinik
43
Sig strikes landed
26
77
Sig strikes attempted
45
44
Total strikes landed
37
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
90s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
19 fights · 14-5
Last 5
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
Blue corner
W2
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
61-17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—