Prelims1
Bantamweight
Frankie Saenz vs Jonathan Martinez
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Frankie Saenz
Jonathan Martinez
18%
82%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
40
Age
Δ 14y
26
13-8
Career record
Δ 11 pp
19-7
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Saenz: 39 sig / 1 TD ·
Martinez: 79 sig / 1 TD
Frankie Saenz
Jonathan Martinez
49
Sig strikes landed
65
114
Sig strikes attempted
141
68
Total strikes landed
85
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.1
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.00
Knockdowns
1.00
111s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Frankie Saenz
13-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
Blue corner
L1
Jonathan Martinez
"Dragon"
19-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—