Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Khamzat Chimaev
Rhys McKee
71%
29%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
26
Age
Δ 1y
25
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Chimaev: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
McKee: 0 sig / 0 TD
Khamzat Chimaev
Rhys McKee
39
Sig strikes landed
27
73
Sig strikes attempted
61
53
Total strikes landed
43
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
7.5
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
498s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Khamzat Chimaev
"Borz"
16-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
Blue corner
Rhys McKee
"Skeletor"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25