Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
Peter Sobotta
60%
40%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
32
Age
Δ 1y
34
23-12-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-8-1
W1
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Oliveira: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Sobotta: 29 sig / 0 TD
Alex Oliveira
Peter Sobotta
32
Sig strikes landed
27
64
Sig strikes attempted
63
47
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
181s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
23-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
17 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
Blue corner
L1
Peter Sobotta
17-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
L
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—