Prelims1
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo vs Jai Herbert
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
Jai Herbert
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 7"
77"
42
Age
Δ 10y
32
W2
Current streak
—
21
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Trinaldo: 30 sig / 2 TD ·
Herbert: 21 sig / 0 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
Jai Herbert
40
Sig strikes landed
42
70
Sig strikes attempted
84
55
Total strikes landed
52
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
155s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database
21 fights · 15-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
Blue corner
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32