Main
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs Marina Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Marina Rodriguez
55%
45%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
21-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
17-6-3
W3
Current streak
D1
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Esparza: 33 sig / 5 TD ·
Rodriguez: 40 sig / 0 TD
Carla Esparza
Marina Rodriguez
40
Sig strikes landed
52
86
Sig strikes attempted
111
80
Total strikes landed
91
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
7.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
225s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
21-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
Blue corner
D1
Marina Rodriguez
17-6-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-0
Last 4
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—