Main
Heavyweight
Fabricio Werdum vs Alexander Gustafsson
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
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Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Fabricio Werdum
Alexander Gustafsson
55%
45%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
43
Age
Δ 10y
34
24-10-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-9
L2
Current streak
L2
13
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Werdum: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Gustafsson: 11 sig / 0 TD
Fabricio Werdum
Alexander Gustafsson
65
Sig strikes landed
64
125
Sig strikes attempted
144
84
Total strikes landed
77
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
92s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
24-10-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
Blue corner
L2
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18-9
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—