Main
Light Heavyweight
Paul Craig vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Paul Craig
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
51%
49%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
17-10-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
20-9
D1
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Craig: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Antigulov: 11 sig / 1 TD
Paul Craig
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
21
Sig strikes landed
19
44
Sig strikes attempted
34
33
Total strikes landed
34
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
102s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17-10-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 4-4
Last 5
D
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
20-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—