Prelims1
Welterweight
Nicolas Dalby vs Jesse Ronson
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nicolas Dalby
Jesse Ronson
79%
21%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
36
Age
Δ 1y
35
25-6-1
Career record
Δ 16 pp
21-13
W1
Current streak
L3
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Dalby: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Ronson: 30 sig / 0 TD
Nicolas Dalby
Jesse Ronson
42
Sig strikes landed
43
112
Sig strikes attempted
86
63
Total strikes landed
53
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
179s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nicolas Dalby
"Lokomotivo"
25-6-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
Blue corner
L3
Jesse Ronson
"The Body Snatcher"
21-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—