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Prelims1 Featherweight

Movsar Evloev vs Mike Grundy

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Movsar Evloev
Mike Grundy
88% 12%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
26
Age
Δ 7y
34
21-0
Career record
Δ 24 pp
13-4
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Evloev: 79 sig / 0 TD · Grundy: 20 sig / 6 TD
Movsar Evloev
Mike Grundy
47
Sig strikes landed
35
110
Sig strikes attempted
74
92
Total strikes landed
50
3.1
Takedowns landed
-0.1
6.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
290s
Control time
15s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Movsar Evloev

21-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
Blue corner
W1

Mike Grundy

13-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…