Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tom Aspinall
Jake Collier
81%
19%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
27
Age
Δ 4y
32
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aspinall: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Collier: 3 sig / 0 TD
Tom Aspinall
Jake Collier
43
Sig strikes landed
32
87
Sig strikes attempted
74
56
Total strikes landed
40
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
107s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tom Aspinall
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
W1
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
14-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—