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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Tanner Boser vs Raphael Pessoa

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till ·Flash Forum
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tanner Boser
Raphael Pessoa
69% 31%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
23-11-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
11-2
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Boser: 43 sig / 0 TD · Pessoa: 12 sig / 0 TD
Tanner Boser
Raphael Pessoa
44
Sig strikes landed
29
84
Sig strikes attempted
78
47
Total strikes landed
35
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
0.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
28s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
68%
Submission
5%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Tanner Boser

"The Bulldozer"
23-11-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
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Blue corner
W1

Raphael Pessoa

"Bebezao"
11-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
L UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
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