Main
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua vs Rogerio Nogueira
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Rogerio Nogueira
71%
29%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
39
Age
Δ 5y
44
27-14-2
Career record
Δ 5 pp
23-11
D1
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rua: 54 sig / 2 TD ·
Nogueira: 46 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Rua
Rogerio Nogueira
38
Sig strikes landed
29
92
Sig strikes attempted
71
50
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
108s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27-14-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
16 fights · 8-7
Last 5
D
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
L1
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
44
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—