Prelims1
Lightweight
Joe Duffy vs Joel Alvarez
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Duffy
Joel Alvarez
29%
71%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
16-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
24-4
L2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Duffy: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Alvarez: 18 sig / 0 TD
Joe Duffy
Joel Alvarez
33
Sig strikes landed
40
81
Sig strikes attempted
94
45
Total strikes landed
60
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Joe Duffy
"Irish"
16-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W1
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
24-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—