Main
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja vs Askar Askarov
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Askar Askarov
78%
22%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
67"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
31-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
15-1-1
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pantoja: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Askarov: 41 sig / 2 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Askar Askarov
57
Sig strikes landed
44
128
Sig strikes attempted
108
74
Total strikes landed
63
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
132s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
Blue corner
W1
Askar Askarov
"Bullet"
15-1-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 2
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—