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Main Middleweight

Jack Hermansson vs Kelvin Gastelum

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 ·Flash Forum
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Jack Hermansson
Kelvin Gastelum
66% 34%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
24-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
21-12
L1
Current streak
L2
10
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Hermansson: 2 sig / 0 TD · Gastelum: 0 sig / 1 TD
Jack Hermansson
Kelvin Gastelum
51
Sig strikes landed
55
116
Sig strikes attempted
108
65
Total strikes landed
74
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
128s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jack Hermansson

"The Joker"
24-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
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W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
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W UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
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W UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
Blue corner
L2

Kelvin Gastelum

21-12 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 16 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—