Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Ryan Benoit
66%
34%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
22-15-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
10-9
L3
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elliott: 67 sig / 1 TD ·
Benoit: 55 sig / 1 TD
Tim Elliott
Ryan Benoit
41
Sig strikes landed
40
84
Sig strikes attempted
88
57
Total strikes landed
48
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
178s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Tim Elliott
22-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 4-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
Blue corner
L1
Ryan Benoit
"Baby Face"
10-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—