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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Modestas Bukauskas vs Andreas Michailidis

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige ·Flash Forum
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Modestas Bukauskas
Andreas Michailidis
75% 25%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
26
Age
Δ 6y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Bukauskas: 18 sig / 0 TD · Michailidis: 23 sig / 0 TD
Modestas Bukauskas
Andreas Michailidis
39
Sig strikes landed
30
79
Sig strikes attempted
61
56
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Modestas Bukauskas

"The Baltic Gladiator"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
Blue corner

Andreas Michailidis

"The Spartan"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32