Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Frank Camacho
Justin Jaynes
68%
32%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
L1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Camacho: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Jaynes: 16 sig / 0 TD
Frank Camacho
Justin Jaynes
57
Sig strikes landed
51
114
Sig strikes attempted
110
76
Total strikes landed
59
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Frank Camacho
"The Crank"
22-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
Blue corner
Justin Jaynes
"The Guitar Hero"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31