Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Roxanne Modafferi vs Lauren Murphy
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Roxanne Modafferi
Lauren Murphy
43%
57%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
38
Age
Δ 1y
37
26-21
Career record
Δ 16 pp
17-7
W1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Modafferi: 44 sig / 0 TD ·
Murphy: 72 sig / 2 TD
Roxanne Modafferi
Lauren Murphy
61
Sig strikes landed
58
156
Sig strikes attempted
151
95
Total strikes landed
87
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
174s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Roxanne Modafferi
"The Happy Warrior"
26-21
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
W2
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
17-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—