Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
King Green
46%
54%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
38
Age
Δ 5y
34
38-23
Career record
Δ 3 pp
35-18-1
L1
Current streak
L2
18
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Guida: 23 sig / 3 TD ·
Green: 85 sig / 2 TD
Clay Guida
King Green
35
Sig strikes landed
49
93
Sig strikes attempted
96
52
Total strikes landed
68
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.9
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
233s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
18 fights · 10-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
L2
King Green
35-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
D
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—