Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Belal Muhammad
Lyman Good
70%
30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
25-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-6
W2
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Muhammad: 82 sig / 2 TD ·
Good: 81 sig / 0 TD
Belal Muhammad
Lyman Good
66
Sig strikes landed
51
137
Sig strikes attempted
124
92
Total strikes landed
58
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.3
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
232s
Control time
2s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
Blue corner
W1
Lyman Good
"Cyborg"
22-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—