Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Josh Emmett
Shane Burgos
43%
57%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
20-7
Career record
Δ 10 pp
16-3
W2
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Emmett: 127 sig / 1 TD ·
Burgos: 128 sig / 0 TD
Josh Emmett
Shane Burgos
56
Sig strikes landed
66
147
Sig strikes attempted
141
68
Total strikes landed
69
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.3
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
85s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Josh Emmett
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
Blue corner
W3
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
16-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—