Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Curtis Blaydes
Alexander Volkov
26%
74%
Why
80"
Reach
80"
29
Age
Δ 2y
32
20-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
41-11
W3
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Blaydes: 69 sig / 14 TD ·
Volkov: 31 sig / 1 TD
Curtis Blaydes
Alexander Volkov
50
Sig strikes landed
41
105
Sig strikes attempted
76
77
Total strikes landed
81
5.3
Takedowns landed
-0.1
12.4
Takedowns attempted
-0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
386s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
41-11
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—