Prelims1
Middleweight
Marc-Andre Barriault vs Oskar Piechota
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Marc-Andre Barriault
Oskar Piechota
48%
52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
17-12
Career record
Δ 10 pp
11-4-1
L3
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 2
Barriault: 74 sig / 1 TD ·
Piechota: 37 sig / 0 TD
Marc-Andre Barriault
Oskar Piechota
37
Sig strikes landed
39
85
Sig strikes attempted
90
54
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
106s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
17-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
Blue corner
L3
Oskar Piechota
"Imadlo"
11-4-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—