Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Louis Smolka
Casey Kenney
49%
51%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
18-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
16-5-1
W1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Smolka: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Kenney: 32 sig / 0 TD
Louis Smolka
Casey Kenney
44
Sig strikes landed
45
97
Sig strikes attempted
94
59
Total strikes landed
61
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
174s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
Blue corner
L1
Casey Kenney
16-5-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—