Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Brandon Royval
52%
48%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
L2
Current streak
—
12
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Elliott: 17 sig / 4 TD ·
Royval: 16 sig / 1 TD
Tim Elliott
Brandon Royval
43
Sig strikes landed
45
89
Sig strikes attempted
99
60
Total strikes landed
57
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
192s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Tim Elliott
22-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 4-8
Last 5
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
Blue corner
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28