Back to UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Prelims1 Welterweight

Matt Brown vs Miguel Baeza

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Miguel Baeza
38% 62%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
39
Age
Δ 12y
28
27-19
Career record
Δ 15 pp
11-4
W2
Current streak
W1
20
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Brown: 33 sig / 0 TD · Baeza: 37 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Miguel Baeza
36
Sig strikes landed
45
70
Sig strikes attempted
83
49
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.5
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
122s
Control time
32s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Matt Brown

"The Immortal"
27-19
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 20 fights · 11-9
Last 5
W UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
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W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
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L UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
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L UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
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L UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
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Blue corner
W1

Miguel Baeza

"Caramel Thunder"
11-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
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