Back to UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Prelims1 Featherweight

Darren Elkins vs Nate Landwehr

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Nate Landwehr
73% 27%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
29-13
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-9
L3
Current streak
L1
21
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elkins: 121 sig / 1 TD · Landwehr: 118 sig / 0 TD
Darren Elkins
Nate Landwehr
44
Sig strikes landed
33
92
Sig strikes attempted
72
74
Total strikes landed
42
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
7.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
253s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Darren Elkins

"The Damage"
29-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 21 fights · 14-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
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L UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
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W UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
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Blue corner
L1

Nate Landwehr

"The Train"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
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