Back to UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Cortney Casey vs Mara Romero Borella

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Cortney Casey
Mara Romero Borella
49% 51%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
10-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
12-10
L1
Current streak
L2
10
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Casey: 6 sig / 0 TD · Romero Borella: 5 sig / 1 TD
Cortney Casey
Mara Romero Borella
52
Sig strikes landed
48
129
Sig strikes attempted
120
68
Total strikes landed
68
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
107s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Cortney Casey

"Cast Iron"
10-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 10 fights · 4-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
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W UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
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L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
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L UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
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W UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
Blue corner
L2

Mara Romero Borella

12-10 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
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L UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—