Back to UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don'Tale Mayes

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Rodrigo Nascimento
Don'Tale Mayes
72% 28%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
81"
28
Age
Δ 1y
28
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Nascimento: 32 sig / 2 TD · Mayes: 27 sig / 0 TD
Rodrigo Nascimento
Don'Tale Mayes
43
Sig strikes landed
32
94
Sig strikes attempted
78
62
Total strikes landed
46
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Rodrigo Nascimento

"Ze Colmeia"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
L1

Don'Tale Mayes

"Lord Kong"
11-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
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