Main
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez vs Drew Dober
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Alexander Hernandez
Drew Dober
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
19-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
30-15
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hernandez: 34 sig / 3 TD ·
Dober: 61 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Hernandez
Drew Dober
37
Sig strikes landed
38
82
Sig strikes attempted
98
43
Total strikes landed
48
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
76s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
Blue corner
W2
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—