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Ben Rothwell vs Ovince Saint Preux

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ben Rothwell
Ovince Saint Preux
86% 14%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
80"
39
Age
Δ 2y
37
40-14
Career record
Δ 13 pp
28-18
W1
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
20

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rothwell: 56 sig / 1 TD · Saint Preux: 42 sig / 0 TD
Ben Rothwell
Ovince Saint Preux
43
Sig strikes landed
36
84
Sig strikes attempted
72
54
Total strikes landed
48
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ben Rothwell

40-14
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
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L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
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Blue corner
W1

Ovince Saint Preux

28-18
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database 20 fights · 12-8
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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L UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
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L UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
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L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
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