Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Sean Woodson
Julian Erosa
57%
43%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
14-2-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
31-15
W1
Current streak
L4
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Woodson: 106 sig / 0 TD ·
Erosa: 103 sig / 3 TD
Sean Woodson
Julian Erosa
76
Sig strikes landed
68
153
Sig strikes attempted
155
81
Total strikes landed
79
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.90
Knockdowns
0.10
69s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sean Woodson
"The Sniper"
14-2-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
Blue corner
L4
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
31-15
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—