Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Luis Pena
Khama Worthy
66%
34%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
27
Age
Δ 7y
34
10-3
Career record
Δ 12 pp
17-9
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Pena: 38 sig / 3 TD ·
Worthy: 55 sig / 0 TD
Luis Pena
Khama Worthy
28
Sig strikes landed
28
58
Sig strikes attempted
51
41
Total strikes landed
40
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
143s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Luis Pena
"Violent Bob Ross"
10-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
Blue corner
W1
Khama Worthy
"The Death Star"
17-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—