Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Takashi Sato
Jason Witt
63%
37%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Sato: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Witt: 2 sig / 0 TD
Takashi Sato
Jason Witt
40
Sig strikes landed
39
88
Sig strikes attempted
81
50
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
80s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Takashi Sato
"Ten"
16-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
Blue corner
Jason Witt
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34