Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Philipe Lins
Tanner Boser
51%
49%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
18-6
Career record
Δ 12 pp
22-12-1
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lins: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Boser: 15 sig / 0 TD
Philipe Lins
Tanner Boser
54
Sig strikes landed
57
134
Sig strikes attempted
119
64
Total strikes landed
74
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.4
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
93s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
3%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Philipe Lins
"Monstro"
18-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tanner Boser
"The Bulldozer"
22-12-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—